Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.617987 3.568487 4.915574 7.032207 10.408539 15.841961 2.584344e+01
2025-04-06 1.566965 2.432204 3.892506 6.731911 12.662357 26.078668 6.539110e+01
2025-04-13 0.979173 1.666448 2.985252 6.019115 14.015701 39.213685 1.664137e+02
2025-04-20 0.709798 1.316357 2.633357 6.233179 18.542736 77.783876 8.120112e+02
2025-04-27 0.550690 1.105164 2.458691 6.862365 26.983002 196.511307 1.406820e+04
2025-05-04 0.430426 0.922421 2.250139 7.311789 38.286254 564.921530 3.169298e+08
2025-05-11 0.335633 0.757578 1.992651 7.384218 50.859147 1800.527850 NaN
2025-05-18 0.258336 0.604984 1.681135 6.885476 59.579455 5549.189421 NaN
2025-05-25 0.197672 0.474365 1.368012 6.008035 61.651559 14962.659446 NaN
2025-06-01 0.167758 0.419028 1.285795 6.372451 90.109623 457316.481198 NaN
2025-06-08 0.142672 0.368495 1.192342 6.581387 127.826098 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.125576 0.336283 1.153802 7.209916 211.119723 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.110006 0.304284 1.101551 7.749695 355.241574 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.093876 0.264931 0.992074 7.540636 480.321420 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.078918 0.225150 0.858831 6.815703 529.522865 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.070389 0.205628 0.817003 7.148003 912.384845 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.064426 0.193525 0.807351 7.973071 2121.027606 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.058613 0.180135 0.782703 8.585473 5014.835657 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.052717 0.164656 0.736645 8.732878 10410.854035 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.046554 0.146479 0.664151 8.164325 14322.334947 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.040544 0.127580 0.578546 7.114801 12536.569485 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.037597 0.120426 0.564179 7.592734 43356.740017 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.034722 0.112816 0.542730 7.876514 175919.918739 NaN NaN